I know what you're thinking....

You're thinking: Patrick, what DO you think when people claim "divine intervention" because a fortuitous accident happened in their lives. For example -- when someone on a mission trip to Kenya comes home for a previously scheduled christian education conference just a week or so before the bulk of the post-rigged election violence starts. This person is apparently convinced that God was looking out for her personally, even though the departure from Kenya had been planned all along.

I think "What... do you think you're better than all the people who've died?" How many is it?

Sorry for the delay, I just went and looked. Over 1,000 people have died in Kenya as a result of politically and tribally motivated violence in the last couple of months.

So, God cares about you enough to arrange for a conveniently-timed departure, but he doesn't care an iota about all the thousands who've been killed and maimed and driven from their homes? Is that arrogant or racist or simply ignorant or delusional or some combination of all the above? (or perhaps it's just mindlessly repeating a formula they've heard from other folks at times) Sometimes it makes me want to scream. Sometimes it just makes me shake my head in puzzlement or dismay or something like that.

Then again, maybe you weren't thinking that at all. Maybe you were thinking: Patrick, why haven't you posted on your blog for 10 days? Well, I guess I've just been lazy. And I never really have anything that seems compelling enough to bother posting it.

So, does anyone out there care that I'm in the middle of a dispute with my mother (who seems not to be talking to me right now...) over politics? I suggested that if she wants a Republican to win in November (which she does) she'd be better off supporting McCain rather than either Romney or Huckabee. She'd been reading a bunch of far right crap and was scared that McCain is an arrogant liar who uses bad language. Personally, I'm agnostic as to McCain's personal characteristics. I'm simply not blind to the obvious fact that if your primary goal is to beat Hillary or Barack, you'd be better off supporting McCain.

[Love that Furry Lewis (on Pandora "Early Blues)]

My mother is one of those who can't bring herself to acknowledge the name Barack Obama. She'd rather refer to "B. Hussein Obama."

When I think about which Democratic candidate has a better chance against McCain, it's a tough choice. Hillary has huge negatives. She does have a strong core base of support. But she has so much baggage. She's probably the most polarizing figure to run for president in a long time. In my opinion, even more than Bush, Bill, Bush, Reagan, Carter, ... and then it gets murky. Looking back I think Ford must have been in a highly polarized position, but I don't think he personally was the center of it as much as the context (abetted by his pardon of Nixon). Nixon certainly had much broader support, and LBJ I'm not sure I remember well enough to separate history from contemporary impressions, which are what I'm talking about. And Hillary has to figure out how to work around the double-edged sword of Bill (and I think Bill may have been a net negative for her campaign so far, though I could easily be wrong about that).

Anyway, Hillary has problems, but so does Obama. He is, let's remember, Black. And his middle name is, as my mother reminds me, Hussein. (And it's not just the Hussein" part. "Barack Obama" seems so.... foreign.) Plus he's only been on the public scene for a very short time. And there's all that weird stuff about so frequently voting "present" or his seeming relationship with Tony Rezko (sp?). I guess, on balance, Obama may be stronger than Hillary.

Just went and looked again, and it's settled: Obama won all three opportunities to gain delegates today. He's now in front for the first time. (Of course, he's been in front considering pledged delegates for some time now. After today, though, he has more delegates even including superdelegates.)

Whether he's running against Clinton or Obama, McCain's biggest problem in the election will be George Bush. I don't know if any Republican can overcome the problems out there for them. It looks like it will take a campaign as inept as those run by Gore and Kerry for the Democrats to lose this time. Is it possible that another Democrat is going to run a poor campaign and lose an election that he or she should win? Perhaps....

Well, it's late and I'm a bit sad because tonight I missed a chance to hear what "Mr. Politics" would have had to say about these things. Oh, well.... Perhaps someone will report to me what a "real" observer has to say. ;-)

Hittin' the hay now. Had a good 9-mile run tonight. Spent most of it trying to write my book in my head. I've gotta figure out how to get this book written on paper (or on electrons, I guess). And I've gotta come up with EXACTLY the right title. The title will sell the book, if anyone is going to buy it at all. I can see it displacing "The History of Farting" at every register at Half Price Books! (I wonder if anyone ever actually buys THoF? I guess if no one bought it, they wouldn't leave it on display at their registers.)

Au reservoir....